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How I pick my investments:

Last updated: 2/15/2025

• My portfolio is generally composed of about 65 dividend stocks of which about 1/3 are energy (mostly pipelines which do well in any environment), about 1/3 are real estate (mostly REITS which do better when interest rates are low or falling), and 1/3 are financial (mostly BDC's which do better when interest rates are rising or high).  
   
• I also have a “speculative” portfolio limited to less than 2% of all my investments.  In other words, the sum of all of my speculative stocks will not exceed 2% of my “core” portfolio.  Whenever my speculative stocks approach 3% of my core portfolio, I sell some shares and reinvest the proceeds into the core portfolio.  There are times when I have zero speculative holdings.  This is "no big deal" to me.

• I never try to predict the direction or change in interest rates, the Federal Reserve, unemployment, or any economic or political indicator.  Warren Buffet and Charley Munger never did, and they became the most successful investors in history.  There is never a bad time to buy or sell individual stocks.

• My goals are that the overall portfolio generates about 8% in dividends and also between 3% and 4% in annual appreciation.  While the portfolio has an occassional "down" year, the dividends are usually consistant or growing regardless of the direction of the market.

• When it comes to speculative investments in bitcoin, gold, or any stocks with low dividends or "penny stock" characteristics:

• Individual investments cannot exceed one percent of all investments.

• The total of all such holdings cannot exceed two percent of all investments.

Lessons from Rida Morwa:

• Rida Morwa’s “Rule of 42,” (Keep your portfolio to 42 OR MORE holdings and trim any holding of 3% back to 2.5%).  (Rida personally holds more than 100 stocks.)
   
• Rida’s “Rule of 25,” (live on no more than 75% of yourdividends and reinvest at least 25% into more dividend stocks).
   
• Rida’s RoC Vs. NAV Rule:  When it comes to high dividend stocks, ignore the “Return of Capital” (RoC) metric as this is merely a U.S. IRS designation where higher RoC reduces short term taxation.  Instead, focus on whether NAV (Net Asset Value) has been stable or increasing over time.  If so, then it is likely that the stock in question is well managed.

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Lessons from Jim Cramer:

• Bail on bad news: 

• If both the CEO and CFO are unexpectedly “retired”or fired without much notice, or if the company and/or officers are indicted, sell first and ask questions later.

• While indictments are sometimes unfounded, they are correct so much of the time that selling an indicted stock is usually the right thing to do.

When NOT to sell:

• As long as the fundamental analysis of any given stock has not changed (i.e. the business, balance sheet, and dividend coverage are good, and the CEO and CFO have not resigned due to any legal issues), it does not matter if a given stock is up or down when it comes time to trim. (But all things being equal, “down” stocks are often “on sale” and so opportunities to buy more unless already at a"full"position.)
  

• I NEVER use the "stop loss" option when purchasing stock.  During the dot.com era, I experienced mulitple "stop-loss" sales when a particular stock ran into some bad news and subsequently missed out on the subsequent recovery.  Instead, the "Rule of 42" protects me even if a holding goes to zero (like Enron, MCI, the original Pets.com and Lehman Brothers).

How I select my stocks:

• I initially identify most potential investments by daily reading of articles and posts from a "core" team of analysts on Seeking Alpha.com.
   
• I then read posts and articles from a "second tier" of analysts, both for supporting and opposingviews.
   
• In the end, it is my responsibility to judge whose analysis both makes the most sense to me and also fits my own risk profile.
   
• In my publicly posted portfolio, I credit theanalyst whose analysis made so much sense that I made the first purchase.
   
• When looking for investments, I generally ignore mainstream news articles (i.e. CNBC, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Yahoo Finance, and The Economist).  I do view or read all of those sources to keep awareness of the world environment, but rarely do any of those sources help me buy, hold, or sell stock.

Weekly reading: My Seeking Alpha "core" Analysts whose analysis triggers me to research further:

• BDC Buzz
• Brad Thomas (iREIT+Hoya)
• High Dividend Opportunities (Rida Morwa)
• High Yield Investor (Sam Smith) 
• High Yield Landlord (Jussi Askola, Austin Rogers, R. Paul Drake)
• Leo Nelissen
• Roberts Berzins
• Samuel Smith
• The Dividend Collectuh

Seeking Alpha Analysts I read mostly for supporting or opposing views on recommendations by my "core" analysts:

• ADS Analytics
• Bram de Haas
• Cappuccino Finance
• Cestrian Capital Research
• Damon Judd
• Dane Bowler, Ross Bowler
• David Ksir
• Dividend and Value Investor
• Dividend Sensei
• Double Dividend Stocks
• Erik Conley
• Financially Free Investor
• Guido Persichino
• Justin Law
• KD Research
• Logan Kane
• Quad 7 Capital
• Steven Cress, Quant Team
• The Value Portfolio
• Wise Bull
• Wolf Report
• Yuval Rotem

(By selecting "follow" at the top of any of the author's posts, that author's public articles will automatically be added to your news feed to make weekly reading a breeze.)

Just as important as Seeking Alpha articles:

• The comments section following every article often contains intelligent discussions between investors and between investors and the article authors.  This is where real education occurs.  It is also a rich source of ideas for new investments.

• I ignore sarcasm, political comments, and cheerleading.  The intelligent posts more than compensate for the crap.
   
• My "core" analysts will sometimes sell a stock because they have portfolios with fewer holdings (than me) and need to make room for a new purchase.  I will often NOT sell at that time as a stock with stable or increasing NAV with ahigh dividend may still be an appropriate holding for me.

Trimming, Selling, and Rebalancing:

• When a stock is more than $3,000 over its "Max %," I sell enough to reduce the holding to the "Max %."
   
• I'll sell some or ALL of a stock if a higher yielding stock in it's category (Energy, REIT, or BDC) offers a higher yield and is below its maximum (usually 2.5%).
   
• I rarely completely sell a stock (with no intention to repurchase) in any three-month period.
   
• As of this writing, my core holdings are more or less evenly divided between REITs, BDCs, and Energy stocks.  At least once every two months, I calculate if any area is more than 2% higher or lower than the average.  If so, I sell some higher shares and buy more of the laggards.
   
• If I purchase more than 13 stocks in a given category (REITs, BDCs, and Energy stocks,) then I will arbitrarily reduce the maxium position value of some or all of the stocks in the category to some percentage lower than 2.5% in order to keep the entire category close to 33% of the portfolio.   Stocks I consider more risky than other may be aribitrarily reduced to 1% or even 0.5%.

When it is time to buy:

• Typical purchases: As dividends roll in each month, I look at my portfolio spreadsheet sorted by current annual dividend and purchase more of existing holdings where:
• The "Current %" is less than the "Max %" and
• I am roughly maintaining a split of 1/3 for enegery stocks, 1/3 for REITs, and 1/3 for BDCs.
• While it is possible to monitor cash balances and make new purchases many times during a month, doing so once a month is all that is really necessary.

• I rarely add more than one brand new holding in any three-month period.
   
• I rarely sell all of a position more than one holding in any three-month period.